College presidents often state that athletics are the “front porch” of a university … it’s not the most important room in the house, but it’s the most visible. Athletics generally receive less than 10% of school budgets, but often accounts for up to 90% of the optics. Televised college sports are in part immensely effective infomercials – positively highlighting college towns, students, campuses, academic and research programs. Athletics keep alumni and boosters engaged, and are a very effective tool to recruit applicants nationwide. And this is supported by data. In a time when US college attendance is declining, NCAA I schools have shown healthy increases in undergraduate enrollments:
| First-time degree seeking Undergraduates 2002-22 | # of Schools | Fall 2002 | Fall 2022 | Total Increase | % Increase |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBS - Power 5 | 64 | 253,517 | 369,141 | 115,624 | 46% | |
| FBS - Group of 5 | 62 | 160,030 | 209,266 | 49,236 | 31% | |
| FCS | 128 | 187,371 | 228,733 | 41,362 | 22% | |
| Other NCAA I | 95 | 140,560 | 182,995 | 42,435 | 30% | |
| Total NCAA I Schools | 349 | 741,478 | 990,135 | 248,657 | 34% | |
| NCAA II | 285 | 200,242 | 234,842 | 34,600 | 17% | |
| NCAA III | 437 | 233,594 | 261,314 | 27,720 | 12% | |
| Totals - All NCAA Schools | 1,071 | 1,175,314 | 1,486,291 | 310,977 | 26% |
* Enrollment increase is for full-time first-time degree seeking undergraduates applying in the fall term, for the 20-year period 2002 to 2023. Data source is the National Center for Education Statistics of the U.S. Department of Education. Here is how the 20-year first-time undergraduate enrollment increase breaks down by FBS conference:
FBS Conference Schools
20-year Growth rate *Average
Enrollment
Increase
2003-23
Pac-12 21,291 67%
American 14,347 59%
SEC 26,315 56%
Big 12 26,142 48%
Big Ten 29,848 42%
Mountain West 12,948 36%
Sun Belt 11,516 36%
ACC 16,853 34%
Conference USA 16,576 1%
Mid-American 13,320 -6%
* Average enrollment per school is total full-time undergraduates, Fall 2023. Conference membership is for the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year.
Another key factor is the composition of the increase in undergraduate enrollment. Not only did FBS Power 5 schools increase their undergraduate enrollment by 46%, of this increase 69% were out-of-state applicants:
Composition of First-Time Undergrad
Enrollment Increase: Fall 2002-2022# of
SchoolsEnrollment
IncreaseIn-state
Applicants
out-of-state
Applicantsout of state
Increase %
FBS - Power 5 64 115,624 36,334 79,290 69%
FBS - Group of 5 66 49,236 29,157 20,079 41%
FCS 124 41,362 12,493 28,869 70%
Other NCAA I 95 42,435 25,587 16,848 40%
Totals - NCAA I Schools 349 248,657 103,571 145,086 58%
Why is this important? Because at most public universities, stated tuition for out-of-state students is typically about three times that for in-state. So not only did FBS Power conference schools have the highest increase in total enrollment over the 20-year period, they also had a big increase in higher paying students. FCS schools on average had a higher percentage of out of state students since FCS has a much higher percentage of private schools (e.g. Ivy League, Big East schools, etc.) that have historically drawn applicants nationwide.
How does athletics correlate with increased enrollment? A landmark study by Doug Chung of Harvard University determined that athletic success has a significant impact on a school’s enrollment demand. In a study titled “the Flutie Effect”, Chung determined that athletic success has a significant long-term goodwill effect on future applications as well as the quality of the applicants. And this conclusion appears to be clearly supported by real world examples.
The University of Alabama hired Nick Saban as head football coach in 2007. Subsequently, the Crimson Tide won six National Championships, and its enrollment statistics were also widely successful. From 2006 to 2020, Alabama’s first year undergraduate enrollment increased by 49% – over six times the average increase for all 4-year public schools during the same period.
The percentage of Alabama’s out of state undergraduate enrollment increased even more dramatically. In 2006 out of state students represented 33% of Alabama’s undergraduate enrollment while 67% were in-state residents. By 2022 – and after six national championships – these percentages had essentially flipped: 58% of the undergraduate enrollment was out of state while only 42% were Alabama residents. This is a major financial boom for the school, as out-of-state tuition at a 4-year public school is typically about three times higher than in-state tuition.
Another good example of the Flutie Effect is Boise State University. After a riveting Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma in 2007, the school saw a 40% spike in freshmen applications. In 2006 Boise State’s first year undergrad enrollment was 85% in state and 15% out of state. After the Fiesta Bowl win put Boise State “on the map”, non-resident enrollment steadily increased and by 2021 a majority of the school’s first-year undergraduate students (52%) came from outside of Idaho – a 250% increase in non-resident enrollment.
Schools are capitalizing on marketing to out of state students … it’s not a coincidence that Big Ten advertising pointedly emphasizes its coast-to-coast reach. While these enrollment trends are good for schools in general, there is also a downside. In-state students may find it more difficult to gain admission to these schools or obtain an affordable financial aid package due to increased competition from out-of-state applicants. Here is how the in-state versus out-of-state first-time undergraduate enrollment stacks up between FBS schools:
Total Full-Time Undergrad
Enrollment Mix - Fall 2022# % In-State % Out-of-state
FBS - Power 5 Schools 64 66% 34%
FBS - Group of 5 Schools 66 81% 19%
Resident students paying the lower in-state tuition account for around 81% of the full-time undergraduate enrollment at the Group of 6 schools, over 20% higher than the 66% in-state enrollment at Power conference schools.
There is a growing elitism in intercollegiate sports with valid speculation that FBS football is heading towards 30 or 40 schools concentrated in either the so called “super league” or potentially a couple of select conferences that operate independently. This would be immensely harmful for intercollegiate sports in general, and specifically to the schools that are actually doing the best job of providing affordable college educations. Hopefully the powers that be focus on the big picture of how intercollegiate athletics impacts the nation’s education system as a whole, rather than what simply financially benefits a relatively small group of big budget schools.
Questions on our data? Contact us at: NIL-NCAA.com
Statistics compiled & edited by Patrick O’Rourke, CPA Washington, DC 