Estimated NIL & NCAA Revenue Sharing 2025-26:

As part of the House v. NCAA settlement, schools are allowed to share athletic department revenues with their student athletes beginning on July 1, 2025. We estimate that NCAA Division I athletes will receive over $ 2.2 billion in total NIL and Revenue Sharing compensation during the current 2025-26 academic year:

Revenue Sharing & NIL
Estimates 2025-26
Payments
to Athletes
%
NCAA Revenue Sharing$ 1,752,000,00078%
Commercial NIL *292,000,00013%
NIL Collectives *205,000,0009%
Totals $ 2,249,000,000100%

Revenue Sharing: Under the NCAA revenue sharing model, schools can elect to make payments directly to athletes up to $ 20.5 million per year. The annual cap will increase to around $ 32 million over the next ten years. The following table summarizes how we arrived at the current year estimated total of $ 1.75 billion:

NCAA Revenue
Sharing 2025-26
NCAA I
Schools
# of Schools
Participating
Estimated
Payments
Average ($)
per School
FBS - Power 4 Schools 68 68 $ 1,394,000,000 $ 20,500,000
FBS - Group of 6 Schools 68 65 221,338,9223,405,214
FCS Conference Schools 129 101 93,872,723 929,433
NCAA I Schools w/o Football 99 76 43,339,143570,252
Totals 364 310 $ 1,752,550,788

Indications are that virtually all Power 4 schools will max out at the $ 20.5 million cap for 2025-26. Our estimates assume that all other NCAA I schools electing into the revenue sharing model will make payments averaging 22% of annual operating revenue. These are averages … some schools will pay a higher percentage and many will elect to pay lower. Of the current total of 364 NCAA I members,  54 schools have indicated to date that they will not participate in revenue sharing, this includes the three Division I service academies and the eight Ivy League schools among others.

* Commercial NIL: In addition to school revenue sharing payments, student athletes can continue to receive third-party NIL income for product endorsements, services and other compensation for use of their name, image and likeness. All third-party NIL contracts over $ 600 must be submitted to the College Sports Commission for approval. The estimate for 2025-26 Commercial NIL comes from the Opendorse NIL at Four report.

* NIL Collectives: With the advent of Revenue Sharing, the influence of collectives at most schools has greatly diminished.  NIL collectives are also considered third-party entities and contracts exceeding $ 600 must be submitted to the College Sports Commission for approval.  The estimate for 2025-26 NIL Collectives also comes from the Opendorse NIL at Four report.

Estimated Revenue Sharing by FBS Conference:

Here is how our estimate of 2025 revenue sharing per participating school breaks down by FBS conference:

Estimated Revenue
Sharing per School
# of Schools
Participating
Avr Revenue
per School *
Est Revenue
Sharing 2025
SEC16136,953,19220,500,000
Big Ten18133,217,63820,500,000
ACC1797,146,14420,500,000
Big 121666,596,82420,500,000
FBS Independents
2n/a19,250,000
Pac 12 2n/a**
Mountain West1122,900,2655,038,058
American 1217,968,2453,953,014
Sun Belt1411,112,2242,444,689
Mid-American139,464,7392,082,243
Conference USA129,224,1512,029,313
FCS Schools1014,224,695929,433
NCAA I Schools w/o Football762,592,054570,252
Totals 310

* Our estimates assume that all Power 4 schools will max out at the $ 20.5 million cap, and that all other NCAA I schools electing into revenue sharing will make payments averaging 22% of annual operating revenue. However, schools can pay out any percentage for revenue sharing so long as they don’t exceed the annual cap.

** We are not making an estimate of 2025 revenue sharing for the Pac-12 as it is currently in transition. However, the new Pac-12 may end up becoming the Sweet Spot conference in the revenue sharing era. Additionally, revenue sharing may also produce a “Moneyball” upstart in a Group of 6 conference.

*

All NCAA I athletic departments are incurring significant operating losses even before the effect of Revenue Sharing:

All FBS school athletic departments incur significant annual net operating losses. Power conference schools use big athletic department contributions to fund most of their operating losses, while other schools must rely heavily on direct school support and student fees:

2024 Annual Operating Results ($)
Average per FBS Conference School
Operating
Revenue *
Operating
Expenses
Net Loss from
Operations ($)

Contributions
School Support
& Student Fees
Net Surplus
(Deficit) **
% of expenses
paid by School
& Student Fees
SEC 136,953,192212,456,935- 75,503,74371,471,9457,384,2233,352,4253%
Big Ten 133,217,638 188,462,418- 55,244,780 42,720,3516,300,995- 6,223,4343%
ACC 97,146,144151,816,480- 54,670,33644,989,29519,468,2549,787,21313%
Pac-12 (Prior line-up)88,604,646145,039,570- 56,434,92428,534,07517,835,374- 10,065,47512%
Big 1266,596,824114,812,794- 48,215,97030,590,59215,520,650- 2,104,72814%
Mountain West22,900,26558,808,685- 35,908,4209,648,85127,190,018930,44946%
American17,968,24561,347,187- 43,378,9428,815,12836,312,5191,748,70559%
Sun Belt11,112,22446,933,285- 35,821,0615,993,67825,624,583- 2,759,05358%
Mid-American9,464,73938,438,034- 28,973,2952,549,12026,789,622365,44770%
Conference USA9,224,15136,039,621- 26,815,4703,498,36422,466,196- 850,91062%

*  Athletic Department operating revenue includes ticket sales, game guarantees, TV and media contracts, licensing, advertising, sponsorships and royalties, bowl game, NCAA and conference distributions, and other operating income. Operating Revenue does not include direct or indirect school support, student fees or contributions to the athletic department.

** Average operating results from fiscal year 2024 NCAA reporting.

With revenue sharing adding close to $ 30 million in additional costs this year at most power conference members, schools are aggressively marketing to boosters for increased contributions to help cover these costs. However revenue sharing will also likely result in increased parity between Power Conference schools along with potentially, a lot of unhappy boosters. Additionally, revenue sharing may result in booster fatigue at many schools. At almost all schools, revenue sharing will likely require the infusion of either additional school support and/or increased student fees.

Schools invest in athletics as it is validly considered the “front porch” of many universities, this is especially important given the very troubling overall decline in US college enrollment.  However, in a time of federal funding and budget cuts, schools must also consider whether it’s prudent to divert additional school funds and/or increase student fees to pay teenage athletes millions of dollars … affording college tuition is already a financial challenge for most US families as it is. Schools that do not opt into revenue sharing will likely highlight this factor when marketing to potential applicants and contributors. 

 

Estimated Revenue Sharing by Sport:

We compiled data from NCAA membership reporting of 20 Power Conference schools, and arrived at the following estimated revenue sharing allocations per team for the upcoming 2025-26 year:

Estimated Revenue Sharing
Power School Averages
TeamAverage
Per Team
Average
Roster *
Average
Per Athlete
%
FootballM 15,345,899 105 146,151 75.0%
BasketballM 3,279,161 15 218,611 16.0%
HockeyM 552,813 26 21,262 2.7%
BaseballM 364,567 34 10,723 1.8%
BasketballW 233,913 14 16,708 1.1%
WrestlingM 126,591 30 4,220 0.6%
VolleyballW 103,938 17 6,114 0.5%
GymnasticsW 91,333 19 4,807 0.4%
SoftballW 83,526 23 3,632 0.4%
HockeyW 65,236 25 2,609 0.3%
SoccerM/W 58,860 28 2,102 0.3%
Track & Field / X-CM/W 43,366 49 885 0.2%
LacrosseM/W 41,083 41 1,002 0.2%
SwimmingM/W 31,986 30 1,066 0.1%
RowingW 20,139 64 315 0.1%
Field HockeyW 19,299 25 772 0.1%
TennisM/W 17,164 9 1,907 0.1%
GolfM/W 12,590 9 1,399 0.1%
Beach VolleyballW 8,536 17 502 0.1%
Totals per School 2025All Teams$ 20,500,000100%

Football and Men’s basketball account for over 90% of team specific revenues at most Power Conference schools, and athletes on these two teams will be the major beneficiaries of revenue sharing. While football receives the most revenue sharing per team, Men’s basketball has the highest average per player due to much smaller roster sizes (15 versus 105). These are averages per athlete. In actuality, a few players per team will receive substantially higher than the average, while many will receive much less. For players who see little if any playing time, their revenue share will also likely be minimal. 

Revenue sharing is in addition to any third-party NIL compensation an athlete may receive. A new independent enforcement agency, the College Sports Commission, has been established to oversee compliance to the rules governing the annual revenue sharing cap, roster limits, and third-party NIL payments. An NIL clearinghouse (“NIL Go”) has also been created to assess the validity of all third-party NIL deals exceeding $ 600. The objective is to ensure that compensation is being made for legitimate NIL and not prohibited payments such as pay to play. Deloitte will be managing NIL Go and has reportedly shared data with athletic directors and coaches showing that 70% of past payments from NIL / booster collectives would have been denied, while conversely, over 90% of payments from public companies would have been approved.  This is one reason (among several) why the influence of NIL collectives will greatly diminish in the upcoming revenue sharing era.

* Rosters sizes subject to NCAA limits beginning in 2025-26

Substantial increase in potential athletic scholarships for NCAA I athletes:

The NCAA recognizes that revenue sharing will primarily benefit athletes in only a few sports. To address this issue, scholarship restrictions on all NCAA I sports will be eliminated and roster limits will apply instead.  This could create a substantial increase in athletic scholarships especially in non-revenue sports. For example, the scholarship limit in women’s rowing will increase from 20 to 68, in softball from 12 to 25 and in baseball from 11.7 to 34.  Here are the new limits under the proposal:

Scholarship Limits
per NCAA I Sport
TeamOld
limit
New
limit
Increase
Per team
Men's NCAA I Sports
BaseballM11.73422.3
BasketballM13152
FencingM4.52419.5
Football (FBS)M8510520
GolfM4.594.5
GymnasticsM6.32013.7
HockeyM18268
LacrosseM12.64835.4
SkiingM6.3169.7
SoccerM9.92818.1
SwimmingM9.93020.1
TennisM4.5105.5
Track / X-CM12.66249.4
VolleyballM4.51813.5
Water poloM4.52419.5
WrestlingM9.93020.1
Women's NCAA I Sports
BasketballW1515-
Beach volleyballW61913
BowlingW5116
EquestrianW155035
FencingW52419
Field hockeyW122715
GolfW693
GymnasticsW12208
HockeyW18268
LacrosseW123826
RowingW206848
RugbyW123624
SkiingW7169
SoccerW142814
SoftballW122513
SwimmingW143016
TennisW8102
Track / X-CW186244
TriathlonW6.5147.5
AcrobaticsW145541
VolleyballW12186
Water poloW82416
WrestlingW103020
Mixed / Coed Sports
RifleMix3.6128.4
StuntMix146551
Totals

The potential impact of these additional awards is massive. Under our calculations, NCAA I schools could award up to 86,212 additional “full-ride” scholarships. Assuming a value of $ 35,000 annually per scholarship, this would result in potentially up to $ 3 billion in additional scholarship awards per year – substantially more than the estimated $ 1.75 billion in revenue sharing payments.

But the actual increase is going to be substantially less than $ 3 billion. Scholarships awards are optional – a school can fully fund a sport or make awards less than the maximum allowed. Many schools already operate with roster sizes less than the NCAA limit, and they will have a new financial incentive to operate with smaller teams. And sadly, we’re likely to see cuts to non-revenue sports at many schools. Athletic directors are currently looking at a new reality where the costs of sponsoring a (competitive) non-revenue sport are likely to increase significantly, while the historical offsetting subsidy from sports such as football is being substantially decreased due to revenue sharing. There are likely going to be painful decisions to make about non-revenue sports at many schools.

Note: If a school awards additional athletic scholarships beyond the NCAA team limits in effect prior to House v NCAA, than the increased awards are counted as part of their revenue sharing pool up to $ 2.5 million per year.

Summary of all NIL Collectives:

Most everything you want – or not want to know – about NIL Collectives.

 

Questions on our data? Contact us at: NIL-NCAA.com

Statistics compiled & edited by Patrick O’Rourke, CPA Washington, DC