Ten schools departed the Pac-12 in 2024, a development often described as an “implosion” by the media. But not only does the Pac-12 still exist, it has added top flight west coast schools and may end up becoming the sweet spot conference in the upcoming revenue sharing era.
The new Pac-12 will be a “unicorn” conference composed of the better elements of the Power 4 and Group of 5 conferences. It will have a lower operating cost structure similar to the group of 5, but with media exposure, athletic competitiveness and school visibility much closer to Power 4. Pac-12 schools will compete successfully on a national scale without having to go all in on the intercollegiate financial arms race.
The Pac-12 brand is elite, it began in 1915 and has been the dominant west coast conference for over a century. The two remaining schools of the “old” Pac-12 are Oregon State and Washington State. Joining them next year are six schools that have also competed successfully at the highest levels of college sports:
| Current & Future Pac-12 Schools: | Conference 2025-26 | Conference 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
 |  |
|
| Boise State | Mountain West | Pac-12 |
| Colorado State | Mountain West | Pac-12 |
| Fresno State | Mountain West | Pac-12 |
| Gonzaga | West Coast | Pac-12 |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | Pac-12 |
| San Diego State | Mountain West | Pac-12 |
| Utah State | Mountain West | Pac-12 |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | Pac-12 |
The new Pac-12 will be highly competitive in football. Boise State was the sole G5 school to make the 2024 College Football playoffs, and four teams appeared in the top 25 football rankings this past season. In fact, the last 4 seasons football teams in the new Pac-12 had the 3rd highest collective win percentage, 4th highest percentage of teams ranked in the CFP Top 25, and 3rd highest percentage of teams ranked in the AP Top 25 – above a few P4 conferences in some instances:
In basketball, seven of the eight new Pac-12 teams have made the NCAA Men’s Tournament the past five seasons, including appearances by both Gonzaga & San Diego State in the National Championship game. The new Pac-12 would also have had the fourth-best average NET basketball ranking among all conferences . And in baseball, Oregon State (along with LSU) has won more NCAA baseball championships (3) than any other school in the past 20 years. It’s pretty clear that Pac-12 teams will compete successfully with Power conference teams on the fields and courts.
And there is interest in seeing these teams play. Washington State and Oregon State football games broadcast nationally on the CW network during the 2024 season received impressive ratings, surpassing ACC games broadcast on the same network, outdrawing Big-12 games broadcast on FS1 and even had better ratings than 7 of 21 early season games broadcast on the Big Ten Network. The television demand for Pac-12 football and basketball games is healthy, and member schools will receive national visibility which is one of the primary objectives of investing in college athletics. The rebuilt Pac-12 will encompass fast growing and affluent media markets including San Diego, Denver, Seattle, Portland, Boise, Salt Lake City, Spokane and central California.
What the Pac-12 won’t have is the massive and ever-increasing budgets required to compete in the Power conferences. Many schools in the Big Ten and SEC have budgets of over $ 200 million per year … and this is before revenue sharing will add another $ 20 million plus per year in costs. Conversely, Pac-12 schools will operate on budgets that are less than half that:
| Average Annual Athletic Budget per school 2024 | # of Schools | Average per School |
|---|---|---|
| SEC | 16 | 204,461,006 |
| Big Ten | 18 | 190,082,636 |
| ACC | 18 | 150,408,719 |
| Big 12 | 16 | 122,886,137 |
| Pac-12 | 7 | 74,699,649 |
| American Athletic | 14 | 70,689,072 |
| Mountain West | 11 | 51,267,208 |
| Sun Belt | 14 | 45,552,334 |
| Conference USA | 11 | 41,757,836 |
| Mid-American | 11 | 36,793,729 |
The Sweet Spot – the new Pac-12 will likely deliver the best bang for the buck:
We can use the preceding data to numerically display exactly why the Pac-12 may end as the sweet spot conference. A simple way is via a return on investment (ROI) calculation, or in other words, which conference provides the best bang for the buck. For football, how much did each conference spend to get one of its schools ranked in the CFP top 25 during the last four seasons?
Football ROI: cost of
a CFP Top 25 rankingTotal # of
SchoolsAverage
Budget $ Investment in
Football @ 75% # of Ranked
Teams 2021-24$ Cost per CFP
Top 25 Ranking
Pac-12 7 74,699,649 392,173,157 5 78,434,631
Big 12 16 122,886,137 1,474,633,644 14 105,330,975
SEC 16 208,461,006 2,501,532,072 14 178,680,862
Big Ten 18 190,082,636 2,566,115,586 14 183,293,970
American 14 70,689,072 742,235,256 4 185,558,814
ACC 18 150,408,719 2,030,517,707 10 203,051,771
MW 11 51,267,208 422,954,466 2 211,477,233
Sun Belt 14 45,552,334 478,299,507 2 239,149,754
CUSA 11 41,757,836 344,502,147 1 344,502,147
MAC 11 36,793,729 303,548,264 - -
By these metrics, the new Pac-12 would have generated the top return on investment of any conference, followed by the Big-12. It’s important to note that this calculation is based on 2026-27 conference memberships, and would likely change substantially if a different variable was used, such as say, teams appearing in the CFP. We ran a similar ROI calculation for Basketball, the variable being number of bids received to the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Again, the new Pac-12 comes out on top:
Basketball ROI: cost of a
NCAA 2025 Tourney bidTotal # of
SchoolsAverage
Budget $ Investment in
Basketball @ 15%# of teams in
Tournament$ Cost per NCAA
Tournament Bid
Pac-12 8 74,699,649 89,639,579 4 22,409,895
SEC 16 208,461,006 500,306,414 14 35,736,172
Big 12 16 122,886,137 294,926,729 7 42,132,390
MAC 11 36,793,729 60,709,653 1 60,709,653
Big Ten 18 190,082,636 513,223,117 8 64,152,890
CUSA 11 41,757,836 68,900,429 1 68,900,429
MW 11 51,267,208 84,590,893 1 84,590,893
Sun Belt 14 45,552,334 95,659,901 1 95,659,901
ACC 18 150,408,719 406,103,541 4 101,525,885
American 15 70,689,072 159,050,412 1 159,050,412
The SEC comes in second due to an amazing number of its teams (14) receiving bids, while conversely, the ACC is near the bottom due an oddly low number of teams making the 2025 Tournament. And these results do not include the additional costs of revenue sharing and related expenses.
Just to compete within conference, virtually every P4 school is likely going to commit to the maximum revenue sharing payout of $ 20.5 million for 2025-26. Pac-12 schools will also be participating in revenue sharing, but it’s going to be at a fraction of what P4 schools need to pay. The surprising twist here is that the revenue sharing gap will likely not overly disadvantage Pac-12 schools, simply because they’ve always been at a recruiting disadvantage. Historically, all the schools in the new Pac-12 have had to compete and recruit against schools such as USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon and they rarely signed 4 and 5 star recruits over these schools. Instead, they compete by finding value in lower ranked recruits and giving them the opportunity to play on a national stage.
Cam Ward was the 2025 NFL number one draft choice and a Heisman Trophy finalist. While he finished his career at the University of Miami, the prior two years he was the starting quarterback at Washington State. Coming out of high school he was a zero-star recruit. However, the Cougars believed he could succeed and gave him his first opportunity at the FBS level. Similarly, Ashton Jeanty led the nation in rushing last year, was the 6th pick in the 2025 NFL draft, and was also a Heisman Trophy finalist. Jeanty was the 91st ranked running back coming out of high school, but Boise State recognized his talent and gave him the opportunity to succeed. Pac-12 schools compete by recruiting and successfully developing undervalued athletes, and that will remain true in the upcoming revenue sharing era.
Where the Pac-12 schools have an edge in revenue sharing is with “dead money”. The $20.5 million revenue sharing cap is a cap, so if a P4 school signs a pricey multi-year contract with a highly rated recruit who turns out to be a dud, it reduces the amount they’ll have available to pay performing players. Of course a Pac-12 school can also sign a dud, but the cost of their dud will be much lower and since they’re below the cap anyway, they would still have the ability to sign an additional player without exceeding the cap.
When the old Pac-12 disbanded, there was a fair amount of speculation about the two orphaned schools – Oregon State and Washington State … how would they fare going forward? I’ll go out on a limb and say that being abandoned by the other ten schools may end up becoming a very timely gift to both the Beavers and Cougars.
Let’s say the opposite happened and both schools actually received an offer to join the Big Ten. What would the likely result be? Pure speculation, but I think both schools would probably parallel the dismal experience Rutgers has had in the Big Ten. Despite receiving massive media contract payments, the athletic department at Rutgers is over $ 250 million in debt and is running up operating deficits of over $ 70 million annually. And this is before revenue sharing and related expenses will add another $ 20 million plus in annual costs this coming year.
And for what? To have lower tier teams and the lowest booster support of any Big Ten member? And Rutgers is running up these deficits with a full media share … if Washington State or Oregon State had received an offer it would have been for a fractional share. Joining the Big Ten would most likely have become a financial disaster for these two schools. And that’s where the rub comes in. More money doesn’t necessarily solve problems, as Rutgers shows it may simply make those problems bigger.
There is a creeping desperation at some big budget schools that revenue sharing has accelerated. It’s why some schools are reportedly interested in a so called “super league” to try to get an even larger share of media and CFP money. It’s why the Big Ten commissioner is lobbying that they and the SEC should each get four guaranteed CFP spots without having to prove it on the field each season. It’s all about money, and it could destroy Division I college sports.
A Tale of Two Colleges:
An illustration of why the new Pac-12 may end up becoming the sweet spot conference, is to simply compare the experience of former Pac-12 rivals Washington and Washington State this past year. (Full disclosure: I’m a Wazzu alum).
Both schools are located in the same state, and that’s about where the similarities end. The University of Washington is located in Seattle while Washington State is a land grant University located 300 miles east on the Idaho border. Washington’s athletic budget per the most recent NCAA reports was just over $ 200 million, while Washington State’s was less than half at $ 89 million. In Washington’s final Pac-12 football season the Huskies went undefeated, won the conference championship, and lost in the 2024 CFP Championship game to Michigan. Later that year, Washington left the Pac-12 and joined the Big Ten.
When Washington and nine other schools left the Pac-12 for supposedly greener pastures, the general consensus was that the departing schools were all in a better place, while Oregon State and Washington State to put it bluntly, were screwed. So how has it gone?
In their first big Ten season, the Huskies finished 11th in football and last in men’s basketball. Two of the football games began at 9am Seattle time, when most Husky fans were still on their first soy decaf latte of the morning. Washington’s sports teams spent more time on airplanes flying to conference games in the mid-west and east coast than virtually any other school in the country. To make matters worse, the Huskies also lost at home to the Cougars in football.
Washington’s official statement for leaving the Pac-12 was because the Big Ten offered “opportunities (i.e. money) and stability”. But the Athletic Department has also told boosters that it needs $ 300 million from them over the next five years just to compete in the Big Ten. Yes, Washington is receiving only a half share of the current Big Ten Media contract, but this essentially matches what the old Pac-12 contract was paying, so they didn’t incur any significant revenue cut in moving. Washington is coming across somewhat like that guy who brags about his new high paying job, but then asks friends for money to help him out.
Conversely, Washington State has simply moved forward and succeeded with a budget that is a fraction of Washington’s. They beat the Huskies in the Apple Cup. They received very positive national visibility with a compelling appearance in the Holiday Bowl, starting a first-time quarterback who really was wearing In-N-Out Burger socks during the game. The Cougars also hired an up-and-coming FCS Championship winning football coach and were actually criticized in some quarters for not paying more on coaching salaries. And next year, Washington State will begin new rivalries with nearby Gonzaga in basketball and Boise State in football, rather than having to play conference games over 2,000 miles away.
Wazzu is doing fine. It’s not asking boosters for $ 300 million just to be competitive. It’s not flying its athletic teams cross country just to play regular season conference games. It controls its own fate and is not worried about a possible reduced media share in the next contract negotiations. It doesn’t need to max out on a $ 20 million revenue sharing commitment. It doesn’t need to compete with conference rivals who pay football coaches $ 12 million per year, or have $ 14 million locker rooms with golf simulators and bowling alleys. It’s not in a conference with an ever-escalating financial arms race among its own members.
Instead, Washington State will compete in the Pac-12. A conference composed of schools that actually make geographical sense being together, schools with sensible budgets, but also schools that will be able to compete and promote themselves effectively on a national scale. And none of the Pac-12 schools will ever have to justify to their boosters, fans and alumni, why they left a conference where they were successful, to become part of a distant conference where they will likely see less success, but with much higher and ever-increasing cost commitments.
I may be a little biased, but the new Pac-12 will be a unicorn conference, and I believe there is a valid argument to be made that it could also end up as the sweet spot in the revenue sharing era.
Questions on our data? Contact us at: NIL-NCAA.com
Statistics compiled & edited by Patrick O’Rourke, CPA Washington, DC 